Ensemble Prediction System (Numerical Long-range Prediction)
JMA operates ensemble prediction systems called the Global EPS and the Seasonal EPS to support forecasting work over a wide variety of prediction periods with early medium- to seasonal ranges. The Global EPS, which has been operated as an atmospheric general circulation model since the first quarter of 2017, produces predictions with lead times of up to 34 days to support the issuance of Five-day Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasts, One-week Forecasts, Two-week Temperature Forecasts and One-month Forecasts. The Seasonal EPS, which has been operated since March 2003 and was upgraded to a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model in February 2010, produces seven-month predictions and supports Three-month Forecasts, Warm/Cold Season Forecasts and El Niño Outlooks.
On the TCC website, prediction maps and verification charts for one-month, three-month and summer/winter prediction are openly available, while access to gridded data and certain other products is limited to registered NMHS users.
One-month Prediction Maps --- precipitation amounts and their anomalies (top) and surface temperature and anomalies (bottom)
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