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HOME > Ensemble Model Prediction > Three-month Prediction & Warm/Cold Season Prediction ( SST Index Time-series )

Three-month Prediction & Warm/Cold Season Prediction ( SST Index Time-series )

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Time-series Type:
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Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals estimated by a bootstrap method (1000 samplings).

  • Analysis Data: COBE-SST
  • Forecast Data: JMA/MRI-CPS2
  • The SST indices consist of monthly mean SSTs, monthly mean SST anomalies. Anomalies are relative to monthly normals of 30-year base period (1981 - 2010). It should be noted the base period is different from El Niño Monitoring and Outlook products.
  • S.D. : standard deviation based on 1981-2010 hindcast
  • Definition of SST Indices
    Index Description Coordinates
    NINO.1+2 Region off coasts of Peru and Chile 90W-80W, 10S-0
    NINO.3 Eastern/Central Tropical Pacific 150W-90W, 5S-5N
    NINO3.4 Central Tropical Pacific 170W-120W, 5S-5N
    NINO.4 Western/Central Tropical Pacific 160E-150W, 5S-5N
    NINO.WEST Western Tropical Pacific 130E-150E, 0-15N
    TNA Tropical North Atlantic 55W-15W, 5N-25N
    TSA Tropical South Atlantic 30W-10E, 20S-0
    TAD Tropical Atlantic Dipole TNA-TSA
    IOBW Indian Ocean Basin-Wide 40E-100E, 20S-20N
    WTIO Western Tropical Indian Ocean 50E-70E, 10S-10N
    SETIO Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean 90E-110E, 10S-0
    IOD Indian Ocean Dipole WTIO-SETIO
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