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HOME > Ensemble Model Prediction > Probabilistic Forecast (Three-month Prediction)

Probabilistic Forecast (Three-month Prediction)

Probabilistic forecast will be updated around 20th every month.

Introduction

The Japan Meteorological Agency provides calibrated tercile probabilistic forecast for 3-month-averaged sea surface temperature, surface temperature, precipitation over the globe based on the Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The specification of the EPS is described in the model outline page , and the statistical models to calibrate model outputs are explained in the explanation page of the ordered probit model .

Three-month Outlook


Verification


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Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
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