jma_logo Welcome to TCC wmo_logo
Home
World Climate
Climate System Monitoring
El Niño Monitoring
NWP Model Prediction
Global Warming
Climate in Japan
Training Module
Press release
Links
HOME > NWP Model Prediction > Probabilitic forecasts

One-month probabilistic forecasts at station points

Announcement

23 March 2017

28 April 2014
  • New forecast maps from 5 March to 9 April 2014 (initial forecast time) are currently available.

21 April 2014
  • Forecast maps from 5 March to 9 April 2014 (initial forecast time) are currently not available.
    New maps will be made available soon.

6 March 2014
  • JMA updated its one-month forecast system on 6 March 2014.

21 December 2012
  • Ensemble mean and standard deviation values have been newly added in the histogram for each forecast station point.
  • Forecast station (Hong Kong Observatory) has been newly added.

Introduction

JMA started probabilistic one-month forecast for 7-day averaged surface temperature and 14-day averaged precipitation. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique with the 30-year (1981-2010) hindcasts is used to generate the forecasts. The thresholds of three categories (below normal, normal and above normal) are determined so that the climatological chance of occurrence for each category is 33.3% for the period from 1981 to 2010.
Model Outline is here.

Surface temperature
Precipitation
Download
page top

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Copyright(C) 2002. Japan Meteorological Agency. - Legal Notice -