One-month probabilistic forecasts at station points

10 Febrary 2012
The number of forecast stations increased in accordance with minor revision of the probabilistic forecast system.

3 June 2011
Verification of probabilistic forecasts with a new hindcast is available. The verification is based on the new one-month forecast system.

4 March 2011
JMA updated its one-month forecast system on 3 March 2011.

JMA started probabilistic one-month forecast for 7-day averaged surface temperature and 14-day averaged precipitation. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique with the 20-year (1982-2001) hindcasts is used to generate the forecasts. The thresholds of three categories (below normal, normal and above normal) are determined so that the climatological chance of occurrence for each category is 33.3% for the period from 1982 to 2002.
Model Outline is here.

• Probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature in Japan

• Probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature in Southeast Asia

• Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in Japan

• Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in Southeast Asia

• Download of sample source code