Tokyo Climate Center

Long-Range forecast over Japan issued by JMA

Note

JMA provides four kinds of long-range forecasts; One-month forecast, three-month outlook, warm season outlook and cold season outlook.

Forecasts of individual elements are given in three categories; below normal, near normal and above normal. The thresholds of each category are determined so that the climatological chance of occurrence for each category is 33.3% for the period from 1981 to 2010.

JMA employs a dynamical method as a major long-range forecast method. An outline of the operational ensemble prediction system is reviewed in Model Outline page. Empirical/statistical methods including Canonical Correlation Analysis, Optimal Climate Normals are also used for preparing three-month outlook, warm season outlook and cold season outlook.


One-month Forecast | Three-month Outlook | Calender of forecast release
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