Probablity forecast will be updated around 20th every month.
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started tercile probability forecast for 3-month-averaged surface temperature and precipitation over the global in April 2005. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique based on the 30 years hindcast is used to generate the probability forecast. The
Ordered Probit model
is used as the statistical tool of the MOS. The thresholds of tercile are determined so that the climatological chance of occurrence for each category is 33.3 % for the
hindcast
period from 1979 to 2008. The specification of the numerical prediction model is described at
Model Outline.
(more details)
The verification of this probability forecast is performed in cross-validation mode. It has to be noted that sample size of these verification is not enough to obtain a statistically significance.
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