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Probabilistic forecast will be updated around 20th every month.
The Japan Meteorological Agency provides calibrated tercile probabilistic forecast for 3-month-averaged sea surface temperature, surface temperature, precipitation over the globe based on the Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The specification of the EPS is described in
the model outline page
, and the statistical models to calibrate model outputs are explained in
the explanation page of the ordered probit model
.