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Probabilistic forecast will be updated around 20th of February, March, April, September and October.
The Japan Meteorological Agency provides calibrated tercile probabilistic forecast for 3-month-averaged sea surface temperature, surface temperature and precipitation over the globe based on the Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The specification of the EPS is described in
the model outline page
, and the statistical models to calibrate model outputs are explained in
the explanation page of the ordered probit model
.