Verification of One-month Prediction

Maps

• Error maps for every forecast (updated every week)
• Z500, T850 and SLP (Northern Hemisphere)
  * Systemtic error is removed.


• Stream Function, Velocity Potential, Precipitation, Surface air temperature, Sea surface temperaturem, Z500 and SLP (Tropics)
  * Model normals based on hindcast.


* Climatological normals:
• before 12 Mar 2009: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis-1(1971 – 1978), ERA-15(1979 – 1993) and GANAL(1994 – 2000)
• 12 Mar 2009 – 19 May 2011: JRA-25 (1979 – 2004)
• 19 May 2011 – 27 Feb 2014: JRA-25/JCDAS (1981 – 2010)
• 05 Mar 2014 – 09 Mar 2022: JRA-55 (1981 – 2010)
• 16 Mar 2022 – present: JRA-3Q (1991 – 2020)
* Horizontal resolution:
• before 23 Feb 2022: 2.5 degrees
• 02 Mar 2022 – present: 1.25 degrees

Scores (deterministic)

• Historical score chart (52-weeks mean of scores)
• Z500 (NH; 20N-90N)
• ACC (since 1997)
• RMSE (since 2002)
• CHI200, PSI200, PSI850 (Tropics; 20S-20N)
  • ACC (since 2005)
• Recent score chart
• Z500 (NH; 20N-90N)
• ACC
• Seasonal mean of scores
• ACC

Scores (probabilistic)

• Reliability diagrams for each season
• ROC curves for each season