FVFE01 RJTD 242047

VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20190624/2045Z

VAAC: ANCHORAGE

VOLCANO: RAIKOKE 290250

PSN: N4818 E15315

AREA: KURIL ISLANDS

SUMMIT ELEV: 1808 FT (551 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2019/018

INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI/GOES/PILOT REPORT

AVIATION COLOR CODE: ORANGE

ERUPTION DETAILS: VA FROM 20190621/1810Z ERUPTION

OBS VA DTG: 24/2045Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL380 N5802 E16957 - N6241 W17609 - N6352 W16510
- N5116 W17704 - N5802 E16957 MOV NE 25KT.

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 25/0245Z SFC/FL380 N5802 E17001 - N6442 W16403
- N5306 W17310 - N5802 E17001.

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 25/0845Z SFC/FL380 N5552 E17156 - N6605
W15308 - N5510 W17056 - N5552 E17156.

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 25/1445Z SFC/FL380 N5315 E17354 - N6025
W17900 - N6651 W14701 - N5556 W16850 - N5315 E17354 - N5315
E17354.

RMK: T+0 CONFIDENCE HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL AND 6HR FCST IS HIGH BUT DECLINES RAPIDLY WITH
TIME. VA PLAINLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. ONE AIRCRAFT REPORT OF
SO2 AT FL470 OVER THE VA AREA BUT WE BELIEVE VA DOES NOT EXTEND
TO THAT LEVEL. NORTHERN PORTION OF VA WILL BEGIN MOVING E WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES N AND REMAINDER CIRCULATES AROUND CLOSED LOW
ALOFT WRN BERING SEA. SE EXTENT OF VA LATER TIME PERIODS IS ESPECIALLY
UNCERTAIN.

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20190625/0245Z

DB JUN 2019 AAWU=