Methods taken by NMHS to generate long-range forecast products
We generate LRF based on the GPCs forecast. However, we have developed a statistical (multiple linear regression) model to get forecast of the average rainfall over Nepal. In this model, NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/) have been used as predictors. The predictor variables are different for different seasons and also the areas and month of the selection of predictors are also different.
Use of climate products provided by other NMHSs or meteorological institutes for long-range forecast
SASCOF seasonal forecast output
Plan to provide long-range forecasting services in the future
DHM had/s a plan to provide LRF. Due its various internal reasons, its plan has not been materialized yet. Recently, we are in the process of developing a system to generate LRF under a project (ARRCC) lead by UK Met Office.
III. Climate Monitoring
Regular climate monitoring reports
Monitoring of climate extremes (including drought monitoring and climate watch)