Methods taken by NMHS to generate long-range forecast products
Long range forecast products are generated using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT). Statistical downscaling of CFSv2 predictions was carried out using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) and Principal Components Regression (PCR). For downscaling, Zonal wind and Meridional wind, at different atmospheric levels as well as sea surface temperature (SST) from CFSv2, Meteofrance, ECMWF, CMC1 and CMC2 were used as predictors with the hindcast data spanning a period of 37 years from 1982 to 2019 with initial conditions from the 1st week of the previous months. Calibrated multi model ensemble forecast were prepared considering skill of each model.
Prevailing global climate conditions such as ENSO and IOD which can significantly impact our seasonal rainfall is also considered.
Multi model ensemble probabilistic forecast from WMO Global Producing centers also considered.
Use of climate products provided by other NMHSs or meteorological institutes for long-range forecast
Individual monthly and 3 month forecasts provided by WMO designated Global Producing Centers for Long-range forecasts (GPCs) as well as Probabilistic multi-model ensemble forecasts generated by WMO Lead Center (https://www.wmolc.org/)
Meteo France seasonal forecast
Japan Meteorological Center (JMA) seasonal forecast
ECMWF seasonal forecast
EUROSIP forecast seasonal forecast
APCC seasonal forecast
III. Climate Monitoring
Regular climate monitoring reports
Monitoring of climate extremes (including drought monitoring and climate watch)
Publication of climate monitoring report (bulletin)
Monthly meteorological dryness bulletin
Research Journal - Sri Lanka Journal of Meteorology
Trend analysis based on historical data and future climate projections
IV. Climate Data Services
Historical climate data provided through the Internet
None
Digitization of historical climate data
Yes
Provision of climate data through the website with limited/unlimited access
No climate data are provided online.
V. Regional Cooperation for the improvement of climate information services
Name(s) of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in which the NMHS participates
SASCOF
Provision of relevant information based on the consensus forecast at RCOF(s) to domestic users
Through Monsoon Forum. The Monsoon Forum provides a platform for dialogue between Department of Meteorology who generate seasonal forecasts and information based on the consensus forecasts at RCOF, and a range of potential users such as agricultural producers, traders, extension agents, disaster risk managers, government planners and development partners.
Seasonal forecasts and drought bulletins are shared amoung stakeholders through email.
VI. Climate Information users and utilization of information
Framework for cooperation with climate information user sectors
Agriculture
Water management
Disaster Risk Reduction
Energy resources
Health and welfare
Heat Advisories are issued
How user sectors utilize climate information
Users in which sectors
Agriculture
Water management
Disaster Risk Reduction
Health and welfare
Types of climate information utilized
Long-range forecasts
Analysis and assessment based on historical data
Climate change projections
Long-term trends
Triggers for climate information utilization
RCOF
National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF)
National Climate Forum (NCF)
Meetings for discussion with information users
User workshops
Publicity and educational activities
Collaborative research
Method of provision of climate information
Online
E-mail
Telephone and/or Fax
NCOF/NCF/conferences
Plan to provide new climate information
No information
Efforts/activities to enhance the utilization of climate information
Meetings for discussions with information users
Explanatory meeting for information users
User workshops
Publicity and educational activities
Collaborative research
VII. Case study/Best practices in the application of climate information
Developing climate information products (CIPs) for farmers