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JMA's Ensemble Prediction System (Products for Sub-Seasonal and Long-Range Forecasting of WMC Tokyo)

JMA, as a WMO World Meteorological Centre (WMC), operates the ensemble prediction system of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for one-month prediction and atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for one-month, three-month and warm/cold season prediction. Ensemble prediction products, verification charts and specification of the ensemble prediction system are available on this page. JMA was designated as a WMC in 2017 and, as a part of its activities, the Centre conducts global numerical sub-seasonal prediction (Global Producing Centre for Sub-Seasonal Forecast; GPC-SSF) and global numerical long-range prediction (Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecast; GPC-LRF).

Notice 25 July 2024 Announcement: TCC's Three-month Guidance Tool (password required) is newly launched. Please refer to the commentary for details. 16 May 2022 Announcement: Terminating the data provision of CPS2 six-month forecasts 14 March 2022 Announcement: Upgrade of Global EPS for one-month prediction 14 February 2022 Announcement: Upgrade of the JMA's Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System 28 December 2021 Announcement: Schedule for terminating the data provision of CPS2 15 March 2021 Announcement: Upgrade of the Global Ensemble Prediction System for One-month Prediction 15 September 2020 Announcement: Improvement of Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) products 16 April 2020 Announcement: Release of Global Gridded Datasets for 6-month Forecasts 16 March 2020 Announcement: Upgrade of the Global Ensemble Prediction System for One-month Prediction 14 March 2019 Announcement: New JMA's One-month Guidance Tool (password required) is launched. Please refer to the commentary for details. 29 September 2017 Announcement: Due to an update of our account management policy for products of WMC Tokyo, an account inactive over 3 years may be deleted after notification. 14 March 2017 Announcement: Launch of the JMA's Global Ensemble Prediction System for one-month prediction 17 June 2015 The SST index time-series forecast product of Three-month Model Prediction is available. 29 May 2015 JMA's Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System will be upgraded next month. The new model description about JMA/MRI-CPS2 and hindcast gridded data are available. Please refer to the "TCC News No. 40" for details.

Main Products One-month Prediction(GEPS : Global Ensemble Prediction System) One-month Prediction Z500, T850 & SLP (Northern Hemisphere) Stream Function, Velocity Potential & Surface Air Temperature (60N-60S) Verification Hindcast Verification One-month Guidance Tool, Commentary    (Only registered NMHSs can access this guidance tool.) Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks  last updated : 24 Sep 2024 This product is intended to assist NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region in interpreting WMC Tokyo's three-month prediction and warm/cold season prediction products. One-month Prediction(CPS : Coupled Prediction System) One-month Prediction Probabilistic Forecast Hindcast Verification Three-month Prediction(CPS : Coupled Prediction System) Three-month Prediction Z500, T850 & SLP (Northern Hemisphere) Stream Function, Velocity Potential & Surface Air Temperature (60N-60S) Verification Hindcast Verification (JMA/MRI-CPS3) Probabilistic Forecast and Verification SST Index Time-series Forecast Three-month Guidance Tool [Experimental], Commentary    (Only registered NMHSs can access this guidance tool.) Forecast Products in Support of Early Warnings for Extreme Weather Events   last updated : 11 Oct 2024 Early warning products for extreme weather events covering the period up to two weeks ahead. (Only registered NMHSs can access this page.) Application If you have any questions about ID and/or password, please e-mail to: Warm/Cold Season Prediction(CPS : Coupled Prediction System) Warm/Cold Season Prediction Z500, T850 & SLP (Northern Hemisphere) Stream Function, Velocity Potential & Surface Air Temperature (60N-60S) Verification Hindcast Verification (JMA/MRI-CPS3) Probabilistic Forecast and Verification SST Index Time-series Forecast Download Products for Long-Range Forecast (LRF) of WMC Tokyo Download Gridded data File     (Only registered NMHSs can access this page.) Application If you have any questions about ID and/or password, please e-mail to: Model Descriptions Model Outlines Operations for Extended-range Forecast Model Operations for Long-range Forecast Model (JMA/MRI-CPS3)