Three-month Prediction & Warm/Cold Season Prediction ( SST Index Time-series )

Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals estimated by a bootstrap method (1000 samplings).

After Feb 2022

• Analysis Data: MGDSST
• Forecast Data: JMA/MRI-CPS3
• The SST indices consist of monthly mean SSTs, monthly mean SST anomalies. Anomalies are relative to monthly normals of 30-year base period (1991 - 2020). It should be noted the base period is different from El Niño Monitoring and Outlook products.
• S.D. : standard deviation based on 1991-2020 hindcast
• Definition of SST Indices

  Index	Description	Coordinates
  NINO.1+2	Region off coasts of Peru and Chile	90W-80W, 10S-0
  NINO.3	Eastern/Central Tropical Pacific	150W-90W, 5S-5N
  NINO3.4	Central Tropical Pacific	170W-120W, 5S-5N
  NINO.4	Western/Central Tropical Pacific	160E-150W, 5S-5N
  NINO.WEST	Western Tropical Pacific	130E-150E, 0-15N
  TNA	Tropical North Atlantic	55W-15W, 5N-25N
  TSA	Tropical South Atlantic	30W-10E, 20S-0
  TAD	Tropical Atlantic Dipole	TNA-TSA
  IOBW	Indian Ocean Basin-Wide	40E-100E, 20S-20N
  WTIO	Western Tropical Indian Ocean	50E-70E, 10S-10N
  SETIO	Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean	90E-110E, 10S-0
  IOD	Indian Ocean Dipole	WTIO-SETIO

Until Jan 2022

• Analysis Data: COBE-SST
• Forecast Data: JMA/MRI-CPS2
• The SST indices consist of monthly mean SSTs, monthly mean SST anomalies. Anomalies are relative to monthly normals of 30-year base period (1981 - 2010). It should be noted the base period is different from El Niño Monitoring and Outlook products.
• S.D. : standard deviation based on 1981-2010 hindcast