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HOME > Ensemble Model Prediction > Verification of Warm/Cold Season Prediction > Northen Hemisphere

Verification of Warm/Cold Season Prediction (Northen Hemisphere)

Verification Maps

initial date

Forecast range : 3 months mean
[initial : Feb,Mar,Apr
=> average of JJA (for warm season outlook)]
[initial : Sep,Oct
=> average of DJF (for cold season outlook)]

coresponding recent forecast

(from top to bottom)
top : Contours show 500hPa height in an interval of 60m.
middle : Contours show 850hPa temperature in an interval of 3C.
bottom : Contours show sea level pressure in an interval of 4hPa.

(from left to right)
left : analysis (Shaded patterns show anomalies.)
middle : ensemble mean forecast (Shaded patterns show anomalies.)
right : error of the forecast (Shaded patterns show errors.)

LT : lead time(day)
kt : lead time(hour)

ACOR : anomaly correlation
RMSE : root mean square error
fcst : ensemble mean forecast
clim : climate forecast
pers : persistency forecast

NH : 0-360,20N-90N
EU : 0-180,20N-90N
PAC : 90E-90W,20N-90N
JPN : 100E-170E,20N-60N

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Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division.
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