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El Niño Outlook ( April 2024 - October 2024 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In March 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +1.2°C, which fell by 0.6°C from February 2024 (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for January 2024 was +2.0°C, and the value has been above the El Niño threshold of +0.5°C for ten consecutive months since last April (Fig.1 and Table), but it began to fall from maximum +2.2°C in December 2023. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal mainly in the central part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was near normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific indicate that El Niño conditions were gradually weakening.

The cold subsurface water volume was observed in the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5). JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that the NINO.3 SST will gradually decrease as the cold subsurface water volume in the equatorial Pacific moves eastward, and will be near normal during boreal spring (Fig.11). Then, it is predicted that trade winds in the western to central equatorial Pacific will be stronger than normal and the cold subsurface water volume in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific will strengthen further, and NINO.3 SST will be near or below normal during boreal summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during boreal spring (80%). During boreal summer, it is equally likely (50%) that La Niña conditions will develop and that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue. (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in March (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal during boreal spring, and near or above normal during boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in March (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above normal during boreal spring, and near normal during boreal summer (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The following weather conditions observed in the world in March were consistent with those in the months of March during the past El Niño events.

- Above normal temperature from South America to Central America, from Southeast Asia to the tropical Indian Ocean, and in the southern part of West Africa.

- Above normal precipitation in the southern part of the United States.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .