Global Warming Projection Vol.5 March 2003 Climate and Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency 1．Abstract We had published "Global Warming Projection Vol.1-4", as the results of experimental numerical predictions of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (MRI-CGCM1) and a regional climate model (MRI-RCM) developed by the Meteorological Reserch Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), in order to assess the effect of the global warming on the climate. For this issue, "Global Warming Projection Vol.5", we summarized the results of experimental predictions of future climate with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) developed by the MRI (Yukimoto et al., 2001). Additionally, as scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, we adopted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios (Nakic'enovic' et. al., 2000) A2 and B2, which had been provided to the IPCC Third Assessment Report(IPCC, 2001). 2．Description of experiments and computations (See a figure. Filename: common/fig/fig_e.gif) For this issue, we computed long-term global warming integrations about two scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, called SRES A2 and B2 (Nakic'enovic' et. al., 2000). For details, at first, we computed historical experiment runs as three member emsemble in order to reproducing actual climate in 1850-2000 by using observational data of greenhouse gases and aerosols, etc.. Next, we computed SRES scenario experiment runs from 1990 to 2100, following the historical emsemble runs. Additionally, we also computed a pre-industrial experiment run which uses fixed concentration of greenhouses and aerosols (e.g. concentration of carbon dioxide is fixed at 290ppm), in order to remove systematic error of MRI-CGCM2. This experiment was treated in response to the historical experiment runs or SRES experiment runs. The method of computations of future climate change by comparing results of SRES experiment to those of historical experiment, in principle, is shown as below. 1) Compute an average for the period 1971-2000 about emsemble mean of historical emsemble runs. 2) About SRES emsemble runs, compute in the same way for the period 2071-2100. 3) As below, execute several computations with data 1) and 2) . change :difference between 2) and 1) rate of change :ratio between 2) and 1) rate of change of standard deviation:ratio between standard deviation for 2) and that of 1); usable index of a annual change normalized deviation :ratio between difference between 2) and 1) and standard deviation for 1); usable index of climatic change in relation to annual change 3．Contents of the CD-ROM The contents of the CD-ROM are shown in Figure1. A part of the HTML documents include JavaScript. You have to use web browser which supports JavaScript1.1 if you want to browse them. For example, Internet Explorer 4.x or later, or Netscape Navigator3.x or later. If you don't use these browser, you cannot browse several HTML documents. The lists of graphic images included in the CD-ROM are shown in Table1. Graphic images are provided as two styles of resolution ; normal resolution and higher resolution graphic images. File format of the graphic images is gif(Graphics Interchange Format) format. In addition, as the contents of the CD-ROM, movie contents and GPV (Grid Point Value) data files are also included. These are flash movies which are playable by Flash Player and HTML documents with JavaScript. The list of swf-formatted movies included in the CD-ROM is shown in Table2. If you want to know about GPV data files, see chapter 4. Figure1 Structure of directories in the CD-ROM. --+-----------------------------------index.html, readme.txt, etc. | +----+----------------------HTML documents (English) | +----------------- (English) | +---------------------------Animation contents (English) | +----+----------------------HTML documents (Japanese) | +----------------- (Japanese) | +----------------------------PDF documents (Japanese Only) +---------------------------Animation contents (Japanese) | +----+-----------------GPV (Grid Point Value) files (format:txt) | +----+------------Graphic images for HTML documents (format:gif) | +----Higher resolution graphic images (format:gif ; size:2100px*2900px) | +------Graphic images and movies for animation contents (format:gif,swf) | +--------------Web materials for HTML documents (format:gif) Table1 Included graphic image file names and contents. Notes: File format of graphic images is gif(Graphics Interchange Format) format. Location of the graphic images: common/fig :Graphic images for HTML documents common/fig/origin :Higher resolution graphic images [Mean Temperature] File name Content of the graphic image ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- a1_e.gif Temporal variation of change of the global mean temperature a2a_e.gif Deference in emsemble members of changes of the global mean temperature [A2]-[Hist] a2b_e.gif Deference in emsemble members of changes of the global mean temperature [B2]-[Hist] a3a.gif Temporal variation of change of zonal mean temperature [A2]-[Hist] a3b.gif Temporal variation of change of zonal mean temperature [B2]-[Hist] a4.gif Mean temperature [Hist] a5.gif Change of mean temperature [A2]-[Hist] a6.gif Change of mean temperature [B2]-[Hist] a7.gif Standard deviation for mean temperature [Hist] a8.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for mean temperature {SD for [A2]}/{SD for [Hist]} a9.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for mean temperature {SD for [B2]}/{SD for [Hist]} a10.gif Normalized deviation for mean temperature {[A2]-[Hist]}/{Standard deviation for [Hist]} a11.gif Normalized deviation for mean temperature {[B2]-[Hist]}/{Standard deviation for [Hist]} a12.gif Daily maximum temperature [Hist] a13.gif Change of daily maximum temperature [A2]-[Hist] a14.gif Change of daily maximum temperature [B2]-[Hist] a15.gif Daily minimum temperature [Hist] a16.gif Change of daily minimum temperature [A2]-[Hist] a17.gif Change of daily minimum temperature [B2]-[Hist] a18.gif Diurnal temperature range [Hist] a19.gif Change of diurnal temperature range [A2]-[Hist] a20.gif Change of diurnal temperature range [B2]-[Hist] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Precipitation] File name Content of the graphic image ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- b1.gif Daily precipitation [Hist] b2.gif Change of daily precipitation [A2]-[Hist] b3.gif Change of daily precipitation [B2]-[Hist] b4.gif Rate of change of daily precipitation [A2]/[Hist] b5.gif Rate of change of daily precipitation [B2]/[Hist] b6.gif Standard deviation for daily precipitation [Hist] b7.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for daily precipitation {SD for [A2]}/{SD for [Hist]} b8.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for daily precipitation {SD for [B2]}/{SD for [Hist]} b9.gif Normalized deviation for daily precipitation {[A2]-[Hist]}/{Standard deviation for [Hist]} b10.gif Normalized deviation for daily precipitation {[B2]-[Hist]}/{Standard deviation for [Hist]} b11.gif Maximum daily precipitation [Hist] b12.gif Change of maximum daily precipitation [A2]-[Hist] b13.gif Change of maximum daily precipitation [B2]-[Hist] b14.gif Rate of change of maximum daily precipitation [A2]/[Hist] b15.gif Rate of change of maximum daily precipitation [B2]/[Hist] b16.gif Standard deviation for maximum daily precipitation [Hist] b17.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for maximum daily precipitation {SD for [A2]}/{SD for [Hist]} b18.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for maximum daily precipitation {SD for [B2]}/{SD for [Hist]} b19.gif Days with less than 1mm of precipitation [Hist] b20.gif Change of days with less than 1mm of precipitation [A2]-[Hist] b21.gif Change of days with less than 1mm of precipitation [B2]-[Hist] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Sea Ice Compactness] File name Content of the graphic image ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- c1.gif Sea ice compactness in the northern hemisphere [Hist] c2.gif Change of sea ice compactness in the northern hemisphere [A2]-[Hist] c3.gif Change of sea ice compactness in the northern hemisphere [B2]-[Hist] c4.gif Sea ice compactness in the southern hemisphere [Hist] c5.gif Change of sea ice compactness in the southern hemisphere [A2]-[Hist] c6.gif Change of sea ice compactness in the southern hemisphere [B2]-[Hist] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Sea Surface Temperature] File name Content of the graphic image ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- d1.gif Sea surface temperature [Hist] d2.gif Change of sea surface temperature [A2]-[Hist] d3.gif Change of sea surface temperature [B2]-[Hist] d4.gif Standard deviation for sea surface temperature [Hist] d5.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for sea surface temperature {SD for [A2]}/{SD for [Hist]} d6.gif Rate of change of standard deviation for sea surface temperature {SD for [B2]}/{SD for [Hist]} ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Sea Level] File name Content of the graphic image ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- e1_e.gif Temporal variation of change of the global mean sea level e2.gif Change of sea level [A2]-[Hist] e3.gif Change of sea level [B2]-[Hist] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table2 Included Flash movie file names and contents. Notes: If you cannot see the Flash movie (swf files), get the Flash Player. Location of the graphic images: common/fig/anim File name Content of the movie ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sat_a.swf Temporal variation of change of mean temperature (every 10 years) [A2]-[Hist] sat_b.swf Temporal variation of change of mean temperature (every 10 years) [B2]-[Hist] slv_a.swf Temporal variation of change of sea level (every 10 years) [A2]-[Hist] slv_b.swf Temporal variation of change of sea level (every 10 years) [B2]-[Hist] ice_na.swf Temporal variation of change of sea ice compactness in the northern hemisphere (every 10 years) [A2]-[Hist] ice_nb.swf Temporal variation of change of sea ice compactness in the northern hemisphere (every 10 years) [B2]-[Hist] ice_sa.swf Temporal variation of change of sea ice compactness in the southern hemisphere (every 10 years) [A2]-[Hist] ice_sb.swf Temporal variation of change of sea ice compactness in the southern hemisphere (every 10 years) [B2]-[Hist] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4．About GPV (Grid Point Value) data files GPV data files of statistics of the predictions of climate elements are contained in the "gpv" directory in ASCII format. A list of the data files is shown in table 4. Each GPV is expressed in a fixed length of 7 digits: an decimal value of 6 digits followed by a single space (e.g. "-38.22 " for -38.22). Missing value is denoted by "999.99 ". Format and order of the GPV data file is shown in Figure 2. Table 4 Contents of GPV data files File name Content of the file ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sat_h.txt Mean Temperature [Hist] (Time-averaged over the 1971-2000 period : Unit degC) sat_a.txt Change of mean temperature [A2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit degC) sat_b.txt Change of mean temperature [B2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit degC) prc_h.txt Daily precipitation [Hist] (Time-averaged over the 1971-2000 period : Unit mm/day) prc_a.txt Change of daily precipitation [A2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit mm/day) prc_b.txt Change of daily precipitation [B2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit mm/day) ice_h.txt Sea ice compactness [Hist] (Time-averaged over the 1971-2000 period : Unit %) ice_a.txt Change of sea ice compactness [A2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit %) ice_b.txt Change of sea ice compactness [B2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit %) sst_h.txt Sea surface temperature [Hist] (Time-averaged over the 1971-2000 period : Unit degC) sst_a.txt Change of sea surface temperature [A2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit degC) sst_b.txt Change of sea surface temperature [B2]-[Hist] (Time-averaged over the 2071-2100 period : Unit degC) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 2 Format and order of the GPV data Mean temperature (sat_*) and Daily recipitation (prc_*) : nx=128 / ny=64 Sea ice compactness (ice_*) and Sea surface temperature (sst_*) : nx=144 / ny=111 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 999.99 lon [x=1] lon [x=2] lon [x=3] ... lon [x=nx] lat[y=1] data[x=1,y=1] data[x=2,y=1] data[x=3,y=1] ... data[x=nx,y=1] lat[y=2] data[x=1,y=2] data[x=2,y=2] data[x=3,y=2] ... data[x=nx,y=2] lat[y=3] data[x=1,y=3] data[x=2,y=3] data[x=3,y=3] ... data[x=nx,y=3] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lat[y=ny] data[x=1,y=ny] data[x=2,y=ny] data[x=3,y=ny] ... data[x=nx,y=ny] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5．References IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. I. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, UK, 881pp. Nakic'enovic', N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, A. Grubler, T. Y. Jung, T. Kram, E. L. La Rovere, L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Raihi, A. Roehrl, H.-H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M. Schlesinger, P. Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van Rooijen, N. Victor, Z. Dadi, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp. Yukimoto, S., A. Noda, A. Kitoh, M. Sugi, Y. Kitamura, M. Hosaka, K. Shibata, S. Maeda and T. Uchiyama, 2001: A New Meteorological Research Institute Coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) -- Model Climate and its Variability --. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 51, 47-88. 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