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HOME > Ensemble Model Prediction > Verification of Warm/Cold Season Prediction > Tropics

Verification of Warm/Cold Season Prediction (Tropics)

Verification Maps

initial date

Forecast range : 3 months mean
[initial : Feb,Mar,Apr
=> average of JJA (for warm season outlook)]
[initial : Sep,Oct
=> average of DJF (for cold season outlook)]

stream function, SST
velocity potential, precipitation

coresponding recent forecast

(from top to bottom)
top : stream function or velocity potential at 850hPa, Z500
middle : stream function or velocity potential at 200hPa, T850
bottom : SST, precipitation(analysis=OLR), PSEA

(from left to right)
left : analysis (Shaded patterns show anomalies.)
middle : ensemble mean forecast (Shaded patterns show anomalies.)
right : error of the forecast (Shaded patterns show errors.)

[Contour interval]
PSI850 : 5x1.0E6m2/s
PSI200 : 20x1.0E6m2/s
CHI850 : 2x1.0E6m2/s
CHI200 : 2x1.0E6m2/s
PRECIP(RAIN) : 4mm/day
OLR : 20W/m2
Z500 : 120m
T850 : 4C
PSEA : 4hPa

LT : lead time(day)
kt : lead time(hour)

ACOR : anomaly correlation
RMSE : root mean square error
fcst : ensemble mean forecast
clim : climate forecast
pers : persistency forecast

NH : 20N-90N
TRP : 20N-20S
SH : 20S-90S
GLB : 90N-90S
ensemble mean forecast
error of the forecast

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