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Ensemble Model Prediction
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Hindcast for One-month (JMA/MRI-CPS3)
> Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts (Diagrams)
Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts (Diagrams)
Verification:
Reliability diagram
ROC curve
Parameter:
T2m
SST
RAIN
Lead time:
week-1 to 4 (4 weeks mean) (day-3 to 30)
the first week (day-3 to 9)
the second week (day-10 to 16)
the third and fourth week (2 weeks mean) (day-17 to 30)
Initial date:
01/16
01/31
02/10
02/25
03/12
03/27
04/11
04/26
05/16
05/31
06/15
06/30
07/15
07/30
08/14
08/29
09/13
09/28
10/13
10/28
11/12
11/27
12/12
12/27
Event:
Upper Tercile
Meddle Tercile
Lower Tercile
Above 0
All event(above, normal, below)
Area:
NH
TRP
SH
GLB
NH : 20N-90N, all inclusive
TRP: 20S-20N, all inclusive
SH : 20S-90S, all inclusive
GLB: all inclusive
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Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division.
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