Probabilistic and ensemble mean anomaly map (Sub-seasonal prediction)

Introduction

The Japan Meteorological Agency provides tercile probabilistic forecast for sub-seasonal (1st, 2nd, 3rd-4th and 1st-4th week) sea surface temperature (SST), surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (RAIN) based on CPS3 (Coupled Prediction System version 3). The specification of the CPS is described in the model outline page.
The tercile categories and climatological means are based on hindcast dataset for 1991 - 2020.
Ensemble statistics products (probabilities and ensemble mean anomaly) are based on 10-member lagged ensemble with 2 initial times.
The reference datasets are JRA-3Q for T2m and MGDSST for SST, and GPCP v1.3 for RAIN.

Sub-seasonal Outlook

• Probabilistic and ensemble mean anomaly map

Verification

• Global maps of scores (ROCA)
• Reliability diagram and ROC curves for region