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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( June 2019 - December 2019 )

Last Updated: 10 June 2019
( Next update will be on 10 July 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In May 2019, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.6°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.7°C in March and was +0.5°C or above for 7 consecutive months up to March (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in May were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific except the area around Indonesia (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal mainly in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was above normal in May, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters, which were observed mainly in the central equatorial Pacific, are expected to migrate eastward and to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal or near normal from boreal summer to autumn, while uncertainties in the model prediction are large (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (70%) to continue in boreal summer. It is more likely that El Niño conditions will continue until boreal autumn (60%) than that ENSO neutral conditions will return (40%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in May (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal from boreal summer to autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in May (Fig.3). The value is likely to be above normal or near normal from boreal summer to autumn (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

In May 2019, extremely above-normal temperatures and longer-than-normal sunshine durations from Nothern Japan to Western Japan were seen, which are not consistent with common features of past El Niño events.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia and the southern part of India in May 2019 were consistent with the common patterns of the past El Niño events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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