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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( November 2021 - May 2022 )

Last Updated: 10 November 2021
( Next update will be on 10 December 2021 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In October 2021, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.7°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was below normal and easterlies in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are consistent with features commonly seen in past La Niña events. La Niña conditions are considered to be present in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface cold water volume observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in October is expected to propagate eastward in the coming months and contribute to maintain cold SSTs in the eastern Pacific. JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific continue to be stronger than normal during the coming winter in association with warm SSTs and enhanced convective activity in the western equatorial Pacific. These anomalies in the atmosphere make NINO.3 SST below -0.5°C on a monthly basis very likely until early winter. However, the probability of NINO.3 SST satisfying JMA's definition of La Niña event (5-month moving average below -0.5°C for 6 consecutive months) needs to be adjusted slightly downward to account for NINO.3 SST being predicted to come closer to normal towards the coming spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, La Niña conditions are more likely to continue until the end of boreal winter and meet the definition (60%) than not to continue (40%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in October (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in October (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in Japan were not clear in October 2021.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

It is considered that warmer-than-normal conditions from the northern part of Australia to the southern part of Polynesia in October 2021 were consistent with the common patterns of the past La Niña events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .



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