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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( August 2019 - February 2020 )

Last Updated: 9 August 2019
( Next update will be on 10 September 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In July 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of 0.0°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C in May and was +0.5°C or above for 9 consecutive months up to May (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal around the dateline and near normal in the eastern part in July (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central part and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activities near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific were near normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal in the first half of the month (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in July.

It is expected that eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters, which were observed in the central equatorial Pacific, will be disturbed by the trade winds and near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in July (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in July (Fig.3). The value is likely to gradually approach a near-normal level by boreal autumn, and warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region are likely to dissipate by boreal autumn (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region on the climate in Japan were not clear in July 2019.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the Philippines, the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia and the southern part of India in July 2019 were consistent with the common patterns of the past warmer-than-normal SST events in IOBW region.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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