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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( October 2019 - April 2020 )

Last Updated: 10 October 2019
( Next update will be on 11 November 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In September 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of -0.3°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal around the dateline and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activities near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific were below normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in September.

Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small, it is expected that near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in September (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal during boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in September (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).



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