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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Monitoring and Outlook

El Niño Monitoring and Outlook


11 March 2024

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
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El Niño Outlook

El Niño Monitoring

The latest analysis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific is shown in Table and Figs. 3-10. This analysis is produced routinely by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Figs. 5 and 7 are based on the ocean data assimilation system (MOVE/MRI.COM-G3) of JMA.

Model Predictions of ENSO monitoring indices

Model predictions of SST deviations from the climatological reference based on the latest sliding 30-year period for NINO.3, NINO.WEST, and IOBW are presented in Fig.11, Fig.12, and Fig.13, respectively. This outlook is produced based on JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3). The JMA official announcement is produced by considering not only the results of the prediction model, but also the analysis of the latest atmosphere-ocean conditions.


El Niño Outlook


Fig.1 Five-month running mean of the SST deviation for NINO.3 predicted by JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3).

Red dots indicate observed values, and boxes indicate predictions. Each box denotes the range where the value will be included with the probability of 70%.


YEARMONTHmean period
2024 JANNOV2023–MAR2024
FEBDEC2023–APR2024
MARJAN2024–MAY2024
APRFEB2024–JUN2024
MAYMAR2024–JUL2024
JUNAPR2024–AUG2024
JULMAY2024–SEP2024
El Niño ENSO neutral La Niña

Fig.2 ENSO forecast probabilities based on JMA/MRI-CPS3.

Red, yellow, and blue bars indicate probabilities that the five-month running mean of NINO.3 SST deviation from the latest sliding 30-year mean is +0.5°C or above (El Niño), between +0.4°C and -0.4°C (ENSO Neutral), and -0.5°C or below (La Niña), respectively. Labels in lightface indicate the past months, and ones in bold face indicate the current and future months.


El Niño Monitoring

The latest analysis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific is shown in Table and Figs. 3-10. This analysis is produced routinely by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Figs. 5 and 7 are based on the ocean data assimilation system (MOVE/MRI.COM-G3) of JMA.


Table El Niño Monitoring Indices.

20232024
Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Monthly mean SST (°C) 27.7 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1
SST deviation (°C) +0.5 +0.5 +1.1 +1.3 +1.8 +2.2 +2.2 +2.2 +2.3 +2.3 +2.2 +1.8
5-month mean (°C) +0.3 +0.7 +1.0 +1.4 +1.7 +1.9 +2.1 +2.2 +2.2 +2.2 not yet not yet
SOI -0.1 +0.3 -2.3 +0.5 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 +0.3 -1.2

The SST is monthly mean sea surface temperature averaged over NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W).
The SST deviation for NINO.3 is defined as the difference between the monthly mean SST and the climatological mean based on the latest sliding 30-year period.

JMA defines that the El Niño (La Niña) is such that the five-month running mean SST deviation for NINO.3 continues +0.5°C (-0.5°C) or higher (lower) for six consecutive months or longer.
Five-month mean values with underlines indicate above +0.5°C, and italic ones below -0.5°C.

The latest SST and SOI are a preliminary value.





Fig.3 Time series of sea surface temperature (SST) deviations from the climatological mean based on the latest sliding 30-year period for NINO.3, (the 2nd panel), Southern Oscillation Index (the 3rd panel), SST deviations for NINO.WEST (the 4th panel), and SST deviations for IOBW (the bottom panel). (each region is shown in the top panel).

Thin lines indicate a monthly mean value, and smoothed thick curves, a five-month running mean. Red shaded areas denote El Niño periods, and blue, La Niña ones.


February 2024

Fig.4 Monthly mean SST and anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Base period for normal is 1991-2020.


February 2024

Fig.5 Depth-longitude cross sections of temperature and anomalies along the equator in the Indian and Pacific Oceans by the ocean data assimilation system. Base period for normal is 1991-2020.


Fig.6 Time-longitude cross section of SST anomalies along the equator in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Base period for normal is 1991-2020.


Fig.7 Time-longitude cross section of ocean heat content (OHC; vertically averaged temperature in the top 300 m) anomalies along the equator in the Indian and Pacific Oceans by the ocean data assimilation system. Base period for normal is 1991-2020.


February 2024

Fig.8 Time series of OLR index around the International Date Line (OLR-DL), equatorial zonal wind index at 200 hPa in the central Pacific (U200-CP), equatorial zonal wind index at 850 hPa in the central Pacific (U850-CP), and equatorial zonal wind index at 200hPa in the Indian Ocean (U200-IN) (from upper to lower). Base period for normal is 1991-2020. Red shaded areas denote El Niño periods, and blue, La Niña ones. Original OLR data were provided by NOAA. (Notice: OLR data were replaced with the new NOAA CPC Blended OLR data provided by NOAA/CPC in October 2023.)


Fig.9 Monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and anomalies. Base period for normal is 1991-2020. Original data were provided by NOAA. (Notice: OLR data were replaced with the new NOAA CPC Blended OLR data provided by NOAA/CPC in October 2023.)


Fig.10 Time-longitude cross sections of velocity potential anomalies at 200 hPa (left) and zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa (right) along the equator. Base period for normal is 1991-2020.


Model Predictions of ENSO monitoring indices

Model predictions of SST deviations from the climatological reference based on the latest sliding 30-year period for NINO.3, NINO.WEST, and IOBW are presented in Fig.11, Fig.12, and Fig.13, respectively. These predictions are produced based on JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3). The JMA official announcement is produced by considering not only the results of the prediction model, but also the analysis of the latest atmosphere-ocean conditions.

These figures indicate a time series of the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) deviation for NINO.3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W), NINO.WEST (10°N-EQ, 130°E-150°E), and IOBW (20°N-20°S, 40°E-100°E). Thick line with closed circle shows the observed SST deviation and boxes show the predicted one for the next six months by the seasonal ensemble prediction system. Each box denotes the range where the SST deviation will be included with the probability of 70%.


Fig.11 Outlook of the SST deviation for NINO.3 by the seasonal ensemble prediction system.


Fig.12 Outlook of the SST deviation for NINO.WEST by the seasonal ensemble prediction system.


Fig.13 Outlook of the SST deviation for IOBW by the seasonal ensemble prediction system.

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Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division.
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