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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( October 2017 - April 2018 )

Last Updated: 11 October 2017
( Next update will be on 10 November 2017 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In September 2017, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.8°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in September were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific, and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were stronger than normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that common features of past La Niña events were becoming clear in September.

Cold subsurface waters, which were observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, are likely to move eastward and maintain cooler-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal during four or five months in the months ahead, and will gradually come close to normal during boreal winter and spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is equally likely (50%) that La Niña conditions will develop in boreal autumn or winter, or ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was remarkably above normal in September (Fig.3). It is likely that values will gradually come close to normal in the months ahead through to boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in September (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).



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