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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( August 2017 - February 2018 )

Last Updated: 10 August 2017
( Next update will be on 11 September 2017 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In July 2017, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in July were above normal in the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was above normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were above normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in July.

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted as mentioned above, and JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be mostly near normal during the prediction period (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely (60%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in July (Fig.3). It is likely that values will remain above normal or will be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in July (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).



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