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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( May 2017 - November 2017 )

Last Updated: 12 May 2017
( Next update will be on 9 June 2017 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

The NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.6°C in April, and had been +0.5°C or larger for three consecutive months since February (Table and Fig.3). In April, SSTs were above normal largely in the equatorial Pacific, except near the date line where below-normal SSTs were observed (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific, and below normal in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were near normal over the central part (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). In summary, while the above-normal NINO.3 SST persisted recently, clear signs of El Niño development were not observed in April.

JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal or near normal during the prediction period (Fig.11). Based on this prediction and observations mentioned above, it is likely (70%) that the five-month running mean value of NINO.3 SST in April will be +0.5°C or above. However, the probability is about 50% that the above-normal value (+0.5°C or above) will persist in boreal summer and onward (Fig.1 and Fig.2). In conclusion, the probability is 50% that El Niño event will emerge by the beginning of boreal autumn.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in April (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal until boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in April (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will become gradually close to normal by boreal summer (Fig.13).

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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