jma_logo Welcome to TCC wmo_logo
World Climate
Climate System Monitoring
El Niño Monitoring
NWP Model Prediction
Global Warming
Climate in Japan
Training Module
Press release
HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( March 2018 - September 2018 )

Last Updated: 9 March 2018
( Next update will be on 10 April 2018 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In February 2018, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.9°C and five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was -1.0°C in December 2017 (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in February were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and below normal from the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were both near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). Although these atmospheric conditions did not indicate common features of past La Niña events clearly, the oceanic conditions suggest the NINO.3 SST is not likely to rise abruptly during the months ahead. Thus, it is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

Eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters from the western equatorial Pacific to the central part was observed in February. These warm waters are expected to migrate farther eastward to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and to weaken warmer-than-normal SST conditions there. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will gradually come closer to normal during boreal spring, and will remain near normal in boreal summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring (70%), and ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in February (Fig.3). It is likely that values will gradually come closer to normal, and will be generally near normal in boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in February (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal or near normal until boreal summer (Fig.13).


It is considered that colder-than-normal conditions in Eastern Japan, Western Japan, and Okinawa-Amami in February 2018 were affected by ongoing La Niña conditions.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in .

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in the world were not clear in February 2018.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in .

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

page top

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Copyright(C) 2002. Japan Meteorological Agency. - Legal Notice -