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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( January 2017 - July 2017 )

Last Updated: 11 January 2017
( Next update will be on 10 February 2017 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In December 2016, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of -0.4°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were near normal over the central part (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). As these oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate less clear features of La Niña events than the previous months, it is considered that La Niña event is coming close to its end.

Associated with westerly wind anomalies observed near the date line over the equatorial Pacific during the first half of December, a weak signal of subsurface warm waters' eastward migration was observed in the central equatorial Pacific during the second half of December (Fig.5, Fig.7 and Fig.10). The subsurface cold waters observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific in November became weaker in December (Fig.7). JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña conditions will decay, and then ENSO neutral conditions will persist until boreal spring (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

In December 2016, climatic anomalies including very high temperature from Eastern Japan to Okinawa/Amami were seen, which are not consistent with common features of the past La Niña events.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/index.html .

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in the world were not clear in December 2016.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



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