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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( April 2020 - October 2020 )

Last Updated: 10 April 2020
( Next update will be on 12 May 2020 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In March 2020, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.2°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the western part and above normal in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was near normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in March.

Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small, near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part are expected to continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal during boreal spring and near or below normal in boreal summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal summer (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in March (Fig.3). Values are likely to be near normal during boreal spring and near or above normal in boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in March (Fig.3). Values are likely to be above normal during boreal spring and above or near normal in boreal summer (Fig.13).



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