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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( July 2019 - January 2020 )

Last Updated: 10 July 2019
( Next update will be on 9 August 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In June 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.6°C in April and was +0.5°C or above for 8 consecutive months up to April (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal around the dateline and near normal in the eastern part in June (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central part and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activities over the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño event, which had persisted since boreal autumn 2018, is likely to have ended.

It is expected that near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will continue in the coming months, because the subsurface warm waters, which were observed in the central equatorial Pacific in May, have dissipated in late June. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal autumn (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in June (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in June (Fig.3). The value is likely to gradually approach a near-normal level by boreal autumn, and warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region are likely to dissipate by boreal autumn (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region on the climate in Japan were not clear in June 2019.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the Philippines, the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia and the southern part of India in June 2019 were consistent with the common patterns of the past warmer-than-normal SST events in IOBW region.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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