jma_logo Welcome to TCC wmo_logo
Home
World Climate
Climate System Monitoring
El Niño Monitoring
NWP Model Prediction
Global Warming
Climate in Japan
Training Module
Press release
Links
HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( June 2017 - December 2017 )

Last Updated: 9 June 2017
( Next update will be on 10 July 2017 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

The NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C in May, having remained at +0.5°C for four consecutive months since February (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in May were above normal in much of the equatorial Pacific from the western to the eastern (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was near normal over most of the equatorial Pacific from the western to the eastern part, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were near normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). The oceanic and atmospheric conditions mentioned above indicate no clear signs of El Niño development, and it is concluded that ENSO-neutral conditions have persisted in May.

There are no clear signs of El Niño development as mentioned above, and JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely (70%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal autumn (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in May (Fig.3). It is likely that values will remain above normal or will be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in May (Fig.3). It is likely that values will remain near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
mail_address


page top

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Copyright(C) 2002. Japan Meteorological Agency. - Legal Notice -