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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( January 2018 - July 2018 )

Last Updated: 11 January 2018
( Next update will be on 9 February 2018 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In December 2017, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -1.2°C and five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was -0.8°C in October (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in December were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). As these oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of past La Niña events, it is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

Cold subsurface waters, which were observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, are likely to move eastward and maintain cooler-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part during the months ahead. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal within boreal winter, and below or near normal in boreal spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña conditions will persist through to boreal spring (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in December (Fig.3). It is likely that values will come gradually closer to normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

It is considered that colder-than-normal conditions from Eastern Japan to Okinawa-Amami and drier-than-normal conditions in the Pacific side of Eastern and Western Japan in December 2017 were partly affected by ongoing La Niña conditions.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/index.html .

Wetter-than-normal conditions in the Southeast Asia in December 2017 were consistent with the common patterns of the past La Niña events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



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