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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( August 2016 - February 2017 )

Last Updated: 10 August 2016
( Next update will be on 9 September 2016 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In July 2016, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.6°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in most regions from the western to the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate emergence of La Niña conditions is approaching, meanwhile slow development of negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific suggests that the present conditions have not reached La Niña conditions yet.

The center of subsurface cold waters moved eastward from May to June in the equatorial Pacific, and then subsurface cold waters were continuously observed in the central part during July (Fig.5 and Fig.7). The cold waters are expected to keep the cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions in the central equatorial Pacific. Outputs from JMA's El Niño prediction model suggest that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal or below normal in boreal summer and autumn, which indicate that the development of La Niña conditions will be slow, and that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal in winter, however uncertainties in the model prediction are large for winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña event will begin to develop by autumn (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in July (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be above normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in July (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).



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