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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( September 2016 - March 2017 )

Last Updated: 9 September 2016
( Next update will be on 11 October 2016 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In August 2016, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.6°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in most regions from the western to the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were stronger than normal in the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions has persisted since July, and indicate common features of the past La Niña events. As they are expected to continue in the coming months, it is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.

The center of subsurface cold waters were observed in the central equatorial Pacific, and their eastward migration was not clearly seen (Fig.5 and Fig.7). The cold waters are expected to keep the cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions in the central equatorial Pacific during the months ahead. Outputs from JMA's El Niño prediction model suggest that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal or below normal during the prediction period, and that 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation will be -0.5°C in autumn and winter (Fig.11 and Fig.1). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña event will persist through winter (70%) (Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in August (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be above normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in August (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate over Japan and in the world were not clear in August 2016.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/index.html .

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



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