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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( May 2019 - November 2019 )

Last Updated: 10 May 2019
( Next update will be on 10 June 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In April 2019, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.7°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.8°C in February and was +0.5°C or above for 6 consecutive months up to February (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in April were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific except the area around Indonesia (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central and eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was above normal in April, while easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). Although these atmospheric conditions did not indicate common features of past El Niño events clearly, the oceanic conditions were favorable for maintaining above normal SSTs in the NINO.3 region. Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters, which were observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, are expected to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal or near normal from boreal spring to autumn, while uncertainties in the model prediction are large for autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (80%) to continue until boreal summer. It is more likely that El Niño conditions will continue until boreal autumn (60%) than that ENSO neutral conditions will return (40%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.3). The value is likely to gradually approach near normal from boreal spring to summer and to be near normal in autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.3). The value is likely to be above normal or near normal from boreal spring to autumn (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

It is considered that warmer-than-normal conditions in Okinawa-Amami in April 2019 were affected by ongoing El Niño conditions.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia and the southern part of India in April 2019 were consistent with the common patterns of the past El Niño events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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