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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( January 2019 - July 2019 )

Last Updated: 10 January 2019
( Next update will be on 12 February 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In December 2018, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +1.0°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for October was +0.7°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in December were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were also above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9). The trade winds over the western equatorial Pacific, however, were below normal in the second half of December (Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters maintained warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific in December, and such condition is expected to continue. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (80%) to continue until boreal spring (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be below normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be above normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

It is considered that shorter-than-normal sunshine durations in the Pacific side of both Eastern and Western Japan and warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal conditions in Okinawa-Amami in December 2018 were affected by ongoing El Niño events.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Hotter-than-normal conditions in the area from India to the Philippines in December 2018 were consistent with the common patterns of the past El Niño events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
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