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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( January 2020 - July 2020 )

Last Updated: 10 January 2020
( Next update will be on 10 February 2020 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In December 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal around the date line and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was near normal, as were easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in December.

Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small, near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part are expected to continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal spring (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). Values are likely to be below normal in boreal winter and near normal in boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in December (Fig.3). Values are likely to be above normal in boreal winter and above or near normal in boreal spring (Fig.13).



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