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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( February 2017 - August 2017 )

Last Updated: 10 February 2017
( Next update will be on 10 March 2017 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In January 2017, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of 0.0°C, and the five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviations was -0.4°C for November 2016 (Table and Fig.3). Cooler-than-normal conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific observed during autumn 2017 did not satisfy the condition of 'continuation for longer than six consecutive months or longer' in the JMA's definition of La Niña event (see the caption of Table). SSTs were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific, below normal in the central part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific at the depth of upper 100m, and above normal in the western part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were near normal over the central part (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). As these oceanic and atmospheric conditions do not indicate clear features of La Niña events, it is considered that ENSO neutral conditions are present.

Negative anomalies of subsurface temperatures, which observed from the central equatorial Pacific to the eastern part in December 2017, weakened in January 2017 (Fig.5 and Fig.7). These conditions are considered to maintain near normal SST in the eastern part in the months ahead. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that ENSO neutral conditions will persist until boreal summer (60%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in January (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be near normal until boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in January (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be below normal or near normal in boreal spring and near normal in summer (Fig.13).



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