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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( July 2018 - January 2019 )

Last Updated: 10 July 2018
( Next update will be on 10 August 2018 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In June 2018, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in June were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and around normal from the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in most regions through the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were below normal over the central equatorial Pacific in the middle of June (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in June.

Although ENSO-neutral conditions persist, the easterly winds are expected to be near normal or above normal in the central equatorial Pacific for a few months. Then, it is expected that eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters from the western equatorial Pacific to the central part will be disturbed, and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific will increase slowly. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will remain near normal during boreal summer, and will be above normal or remain near normal in boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (70%), and it is equally likely (50%) that El Niño conditions will develop in boreal autumn, or ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal autumn (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in June (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal or near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in June (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal or near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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