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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( May 2018 - November 2018 )

Last Updated: 11 May 2018
( Next update will be on 11 June 2018 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In April 2018, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.5°C (Table and Fig.3). The five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was -0.9°C in February 2018 and was -0.5°C or below for 6 consecutive months up to February. SSTs in April were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and below normal from the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal from the western to central equatorial Pacific and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were above normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). As these oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of past La Niña events, it is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.

Eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters from the western equatorial Pacific to the central part was observed in April. These warm waters are expected to migrate farther eastward to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and to weaken colder-than-normal SST conditions there. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will come closer to normal during boreal spring, and will remain near normal in boreal summer and autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring (90%), and ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in April (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal or near normal in boreal summer and autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in April (Fig.3). It is likely that values will be below normal or near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

In April 2018, high temperatures from Northern Japan to Western Japan were seen, which are not consistent with common features of past La Niña events.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/index.html .

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in the world were not clear in April 2018.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



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