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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( November 2016 - May 2017 )

Last Updated: 10 November 2016
( Next update will be on 9 December 2016 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In October 2016, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.5°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and above normal in the western part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were stronger than normal in the central part (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of the past La Niña events. As they are expected to continue in the coming months, it is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface cold waters were observed in the central equatorial Pacific persistently since July, and were stronger in October than in September (Fig.5 and Fig.7). These cold waters are expected to keep the cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions in the central equatorial Pacific during the months ahead. Outputs from JMA's El Niño prediction model suggest that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal in the boreal autumn, and near normal or below normal in the boreal winter (Fig.11 and Fig.1). In conclusion, it is more likely that La Niña conditions will persist through the boreal winter (60%) than that ENSO neutral conditions will return (40%)(Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in October (Fig.3). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be above normal until the boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in October (Fig.3). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be below normal in the boreal autumn and will be near normal or below normal in the boreal winter (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

In October 2016, Warmer-than-normal conditions in Western Japan and Okinawa/Amami, and shorter-than-normal sunshine durations in Western Japan were partly affected by ongoing La Niña conditions.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/index.html .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the eastern part of the Unites States were consistent with the common patterns in the past La Niña events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
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