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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( March 2019 - September 2019 )

Last Updated: 11 March 2019
( Next update will be on 10 April 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In February 2019, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.7°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for December was +0.9°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in February were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific except the area around Indonesia (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were also above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific, especially in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was above normal in February, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were below normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted in the equatorial Pacific.

In February, the NINO.3 SST deviation was above normal, while the trade winds were weakened. The eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters, enhanced by the weakened trade winds, is expected to strengthen warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal from boreal spring to summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (70%) to continue until boreal summer (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in February (Fig.3). The value is likely to be below normal or near normal from boreal spring to summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in February (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near normal or above normal from boreal spring to summer (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

It is considered that warmer-than-normal conditions in Western Japan and okinawa-Amamii, and wetter-than-normal conditions in Okinawa-Amami in February 2019 were afected by ongoing El Niño conditions.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

Warmer-than-normal conditions in the Philippines, the Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia and India in February 2019 were consistent with the common patterns of the past El Niño events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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