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[El Niño / La Niña]In June 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +1.9 °C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for April 2026 was +0.8°C (Fig.1 and Table). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal, particularly in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal, particularly in the central and eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity was enhanced in the vicinity of the equatorial dateline, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are consistent with common features of past El Niño events. From the above, it is concluded that El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted since Spring 2026.
The warm subsurface water in the central and eastern parts of equatorial Pacific has maintained warm SST in NINO.3 region. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that the subsurface water in the central and eastern parts will rise due to the atmosphere-ocean interaction, leading to an increase in the NINO.3 SST until boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are virtually certain (100%) to continue until boreal autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in June (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in June (Fig.3). The IOBW index is likely to be near normal during boreal summer, and to be near or above normal during boreal autumn (Fig.13). The Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was -0.41 (Fig.3). SSTs in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean were above normal (Fig.4).
[Impacts]
The following weather conditions observed in June were consistent with those in the months of June during the past El Niño events.
- Above normal temperatures from the southern part of Central America and the northern part of South America to the central equatorial Pacific and in Southeast Asia.
- Above normal precipitation in the tropical Pacific.
- Below normal precipitation in the southern part of Southeast Asia.
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .
