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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( September 2019 - March 2020 )

Last Updated: 10 September 2019
( Next update will be on 10 October 2019 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In August 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of -0.2°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal around the dateline and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activities near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific were near normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in August.

Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small, it is expected that near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in August (Fig.3). The value is likely to be almost near normal until boreal winter, while prediction uncertainties are large (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in August (Fig.3). The value is likely to become near normal during boreal autumn, and warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region are likely to dissipate (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region on the climate in Japan were not clear in August 2019.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

The influences of warmer-than-normal SST conditions in IOBW region on the climate in the world were not clear in August 2019.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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