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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( November 2019 - May 2020 )

Last Updated: 11 November 2019
( Next update will be on 10 December 2019 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In October 2019, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.2°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activities near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific were near normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in October.

Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small, it is expected that near-normal SST conditions in the eastern part will continue in the coming months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal spring (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in October (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near or below normal until boreal winter and near or above normal during boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in October (Fig.3). The value is likely to be near or above normal until boreal spring (Fig.13).

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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