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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( May 2016 - November 2016 )

Last Updated: 12 May 2016
( Next update will be on 10 June 2016 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In April 2016, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.8°C, which is 0.8°C lower than in March (Table and Fig.1). Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or above for 21 consecutive months ending in February. SSTs were remarkably above normal in the central equatorial Pacific in April, while SSTs came close to normal in the eastern part, in some regions of which SSTs below normal were observed (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in almost whole regions from the western to the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activities were above normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were below normal (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These atmospheric conditions were consistent with common patterns in the past El Niño events, while the oceanic conditions indicate that the current El Niño conditions are decaying.

Subsurface cold waters, which were observed in April from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern part, will migrate eastward in the months ahead, and tend to strengthen cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal in the Northern Hemisphere summer and autumn (Fig.9). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño event will end in spring, and La Niña conditions will develop in summer.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be above normal in the Northern Hemisphere summer and autumn (Fig.10).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be above normal until the Northern Hemisphere summer and will come closer gradually to normal in autumn (Fig.11).

[Impacts]

In April 2016, warmer-than-normal conditions from Eastern Japan to Okinawa-Amami and wetter-than-normal conditions and shorter-than-normal sunshine durations in Western Japan were considered to be affected by ongoing El Niño conditions.

In April 2016, warmer-than-normal conditions in West Africa, regions near Madagascar, the southern part of India, Southeast Asia, and the eastern part of Australia were consistent with the common patterns in the past El Niño events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index.htm .



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