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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( November 2018 - May 2019 )

Last Updated: 9 November 2018
( Next update will be on 10 December 2018 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In October 2018, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.9°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in October were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were also above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was near normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, while easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were below normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). As these oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of past El Niño events, it is considered that El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters are expected to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal from boreal autumn to spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until boreal spring (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in October (Fig.3). It is likely that the value will be below normal until boreal spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in October (Fig.3). It is likely that the value will be close to near normal in boreal autumn and above normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of El Niño conditions on the climate in Japan were not clear in October 2018.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

The influences of El Niño conditions on the climate in the world were not clear in October 2018.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
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