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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( July 2016 - January 2017 )

Last Updated: 11 July 2016
( Next update will be on 10 August 2016 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In June 2016, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of -0.1°C (Table and Fig.1). SSTs were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in most regions from the western to the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activity was near normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were near normal (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO neutral conditions persisted.

The center of subsurface cold waters moved eastward, and were weakened by westerly wind anomalies which were observed during the first half of June (Fig.3, Fig.5 and Fig.8). The cold waters are expected to migrate eastward in the months ahead, and a tendency toward even cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions will be seen in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the boreal summer. In autumn, the influence of the cold waters on SSTs will be weaker than expected in the previous month's prediction. Outputs from JMA's El Niño prediction model reflect these changes in the observed conditions, and predict the development of La Niña event slower than the previous month's result. The latest model outputs suggest that the NINO.3 SST will be near normal or below normal in boreal summer and autumn (Fig.9). In conclusion, compared to the previous month's prediction, the possibility of development of La Niña conditions during the boreal summer decreased, and it has become more likely that the onset of La Niña event will be shifted to the boreal autumn.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in June (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be above normal in boreal summer and autumn (Fig.10).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in June (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal in boreal summer and autumn (Fig.11).

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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