jma_logo Welcome to TCC wmo_logo
Home
World Climate
Climate System Monitoring
El Niño Monitoring
NWP Model Prediction
Global Warming
Climate in Japan
Training Module
Press release
Links
HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( March 2024 - September 2024 )

Last Updated: 11 March 2024
( Next update will be on 10 April 2024 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In February 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +1.8°C, which was smaller than +2.2°C in January 2024 (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for December 2023 was +2.2°C, and the value has been above the El Niño threshold of +0.5°C for nine consecutive months since last April (Fig.1 and Table). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal from near the dateline to the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific was above normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). While the atmospheric conditions were still consistent with common features of past El Niño events, the oceanic conditions were gradually weakening. From the above, it is concluded that ongoing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have already peaked and are now gradually weakening.

The cold subsurface water volume was observed in the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5). JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that the NINO.3 SST will gradually decrease as the cold subsurface water volume in the equatorial Pacific moves eastward, and will be near normal during boreal spring (Fig.11). Then, it is predicted that trade winds in the western to central equatorial Pacific will be stronger than normal and the cold subsurface water volume in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific will strengthen further, and NINO.3 SST will be near or below normal during boreal summer (Fig.11). However, the historical performance of the prediction system is relatively low at this time of year (known as spring predictability barrier). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during boreal spring (80%). During boreal summer, it is more likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (60%) than La Niña conditions will develop (40%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in February (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near or below normal during boreal spring, and almost near normal during boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in February (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above normal until boreal summer (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

El Niño conditions likely influenced nationwide above-normal temperatures in Japan in February.

The following weather conditions observed in the world in February were consistent with those in the months of February during the past El Niño events.

- Above normal temperature from Southeast Asia to the southern part of India, in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, in the southern part of West Africa, in the northeastern part of South America, and from the central part of Polynesia to Melanesia.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
mail_address


page top

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division.
Copyright(C) 2002. Japan Meteorological Agency. - Legal Notice -