jma_logo Welcome to TCC wmo_logo
Home
World Climate
Climate System Monitoring
El Niño Monitoring
NWP Model Prediction
Global Warming
Climate in Japan
Training Module
Press release
Links
HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( September 2018 - March 2019 )

Last Updated: 10 September 2018
( Next update will be on 11 October 2018 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In August 2018, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of +0.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in August were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific and around normal from the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal from the western to the central equatorial Pacific and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity was near normal near the date line over the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were also near normal over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in August.

The easterly winds are expected to be near normal or above normal from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific, and eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters from the western equatorial Pacific to the central part is expected to be disturbed in early boreal autumn. After that, the subsurface warm waters are expected to migrate eastward and increase SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal or near normal from boreal autumn to boreal winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is more likely (60%) that El Niño conditions will develop in boreal autumn than that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal autumn (40%)(Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in August (Fig.3). It is likely that the value will be below normal or near normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in August (Fig.3). It is likely that the value will be below normal or near normal during boreal autumn and above normal or near normal in boreal winter (Fig.13).



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
mail_address


page top

Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Copyright(C) 2002. Japan Meteorological Agency. - Legal Notice -