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[El Niño / La Niña]In May 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +1.2°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for March 2026 was +0.4°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal across the entire region, particularly in the central and eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal across the entire region, particularly in the central and eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity was near normal in the vicinity of the equatorial dateline, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific became weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These patterns in the ocean and atmosphere indicate El Niño conditions are present from Spring 2026.
The warm subsurface water has continued to propagate eastward across the equatorial Pacific. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that this eastward propagation of warm water will keep SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific above normal. Furthermore, NINO.3 SST is predicted to rise, keeping above normal until boreal autumn in association with the eastward propagation of the warm subsurface water in the equatorial Pacific due to the atmosphere-ocean interaction (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are highly likely (100%) to continue until boreal autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in May (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in May (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until boreal summer, and to be near or above normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).
[Impacts]
The following weather conditions observed in May were consistent with those in the months of May during the past El Niño events.
- Above normal temperature from Central America to the central equatorial Pacific.
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .
