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[El Niño / La Niña]In April 2025, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of +0.1°C, which declined by 0.6°C from March 2025 (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for February 2025 was +0.1°C. SSTs and subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part, while they were below normal in the central part (Fig.4, Fig.5, Fig.6 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal in the central part, but convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in April.
In April 2025, SSTs for the NINO.3 region were near normal. The accumulation of warm water in the equatorial Pacific is not clear. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that NINO.3 SST will persist near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely (60%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist to boreal autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in April (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in April (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
