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[El Niño / La Niña]In April 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +0.7°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for February 2026 was 0.0°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal across almost the entire region, particularly near the date line and in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal across almost the entire region (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity was near normal in the vicinity of the equatorial dateline, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in April, but the tropical Pacific is heading towards El Niño conditions.
The warm subsurface water has continued to propagate eastward across the equatorial Pacific. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that this eastward propagation of warm water will keep SSTs in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific above normal. Furthermore, NINO.3 SST is predicted to rise, keeping above normal until boreal autumn in association with the eastward propagation of the warm subsurface water in the equatorial Pacific due to the atmosphere-ocean interaction (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely (90%) that El Niño conditions will develop by boreal summer.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.3). The index will decrease by the end of boreal summer and is likely to be below normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in April (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
