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El Niño Outlook ( August 2026 - February 2027 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In July 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +2.5 °C tying with 1997 for the highest value for July since 1949(Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for May 2026 was +1.3°C (Fig.1 and Table). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the central and eastern parts and below normal in the western part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the central and eastern parts, and below normal in the western part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity was markedly enhanced in the vicinity of the equatorial dateline, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were significantly weaker than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that El Niño features have been strengthening. From the above, it is concluded that El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted since Spring 2026.

The warm subsurface water in the central and eastern parts of equatorial Pacific has maintained warm SST in NINO.3 region. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that the subsurface water in the central and eastern parts will rise due to atmosphere-ocean interaction. As a result,the NINO.3 SST is expected to increase until boreal winter,reaching a level comparable to that of 1997, when the highest peak value on record was observed (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are virtually certain (100%) to continue until boreal winter.

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in July (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in July (Fig.3). The IOBW index is likely to remain above normal until boreal winter (Fig.13). The Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI) was +0.40 (Fig.3). SSTs in the western tropical Indian Ocean were above normal (Fig.4).

[Impacts]

The following weather conditions observed in July were consistent with those in the months of July during the past El Niño events.

- Above normal temperatures in South Asia and from the central equatorial Pacific to Central America and the northern part of South America.

- Below normal temperatures in the region from Melanesia to the southwestern part of Polynesia.

- Above normal precipitation in the tropical Pacific and from the southern part of Peru to central Chile.

- Below normal precipitation in South Asia and its surrounding areas,the southern part of Southeast Asia, and the northern part of South America and its surrounding areas.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .