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[El Niño / La Niña]In February 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of +0.1°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for December 2025 was -0.4°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western and eastern part, while they were below normal in the central part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal except for parts of eastern region (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal in western and central parts, while they were near normal in eastern parts. Convective activity was slightly weaker than normal near the equatorial dateline (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean which were similar to those of La Niña events were dissipating. ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in February.
The warm subsurface water in the western equatorial Pacific, extending towards the equatorial dateline, has propagated eastward since December 2025. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that NINO.3 SST will rise, reaching near or above normal by summer in association with the further enhanced warm subsurface water and its eastward propagation (Fig.11). However, predicting the ENSO conditions beyond spring is subject to not insignificant uncertainty. In conclusion, it is equally likely (50%) that El Niño conditions will develop, or ENSO-neutral conditions will persist in spring. And it is more likely (60%) that El Niño conditions will develop by summer than ENSO-neutral conditions will persist (40%).
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in February (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal during spring and below or near normal in summer (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in February (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until summer (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
