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[El Niño / La Niña]In July 2025, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of -0.1°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for May 2025 was +0.1°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part, below normal in the central part and near normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part, while they were below normal in the central and eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal in the central part, but were near normal in the eastern part. Convective activity was enhanced near the Maritime Continent but was near normal near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in July.
JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that NINO.3 SST will decrease due to the persistence of stronger-than-normal easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific toward the boreal autumn. However, the La Niña-like conditions will not last long due to weak atmosphere-ocean coupling, and it is predicted that NINO.3 SST will come closer to normal during boreal winter (Fig.11). Adding to this, cold subsurface water accumulation was not observed in the equatorial pacific. In conclusion, it is more likely (60%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until the boreal winter.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in July(Fig.3). The index is likely to be near or above normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in July (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
