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[El Niño / La Niña]In August 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was below normal with a deviation of -0.5°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for June 2024 was 0.0°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central to eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was near normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific comprehensively indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in August. Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, however, indicate the tropical Pacific is heading towards La Niña conditions.
The cold subsurface water volume was observed in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5). JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that trade winds over the western to central equatorial Pacific will be stronger than normal and the cold subsurface water volume in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific will be strengthened further. As a result, it is expected that NINO.3 SST will be below normal by boreal winter. However, NINO.3 SST is predicted to come closer to normal towards the coming spring as the warm water in the western equatorial Pacific moves eastward (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is more likely that La Niña conditions will develop by boreal winter (60%) than ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (40%).
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in August (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in August (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near or below normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
