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El Niño Outlook ( April 2026 - October 2026 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In March 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of +0.3°C (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for January 2026 was -0.2°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal particularly in the western to central regions (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal in the central part, while they were weaker than normal in the western part. Convective activity was near normal in the vicinity of the equatorial dateline, while it was stronger than normal to the west (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in March.

The warm subsurface water has continued to propagate eastward across the western to central equatorial Pacific. JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that NINO.3 SST will rise, reaching near or above normal in spring and above normal by summer in association with the further enhanced warm subsurface water and its eastward propagation (Fig.11). However, predicting the ENSO conditions beyond spring is subject to some uncertainty. In conclusion, during spring, it is more likely (60%) that El Niño conditions will develop than ENSO-neutral conditions will persist (40%). And it is likely that El Niño conditions will develop by boreal summer (70%).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in March (Fig.3). The index will gradually decrease and is likely to be near or below normal during spring and below normal in summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in March (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near or below normal until summer (Fig.13).

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .