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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( April 2021 - October 2021 )

Last Updated: 9 April 2021
( Next update will be on 12 May 2021 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In March 2021, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -0.6°C (Table and Fig.3). The five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was -0.8°C in January 2021 and continued to be -0.5°C or below for 7 months beginning from last July ( JMA's criterion of a La Niña event is -0.5°C or below for consecutive 6 months). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western and central parts and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was below normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of past La Niña events. Features of the La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific since boreal summer 2020 are decaying.

The eastward migration of the subsurface warm waters is reaching the eastern equatorial Pacific, expected to continue and weaken colder-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part soon. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will become near normal gradually in boreal spring, and remains near normal during boreal summer (Fig.11). In conclusion, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to return in boreal spring (80%). The ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during boreal summer (70%). (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in March (Fig.3). The index is likely to become near normal gradually in boreal spring, and remains near normal during boreal summer (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in March (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal during boreal spring and summer (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in Japan were not clear in March 2021.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

The influences of La Niña conditions on the world climate were not clear in March 2021.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .



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