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[El Niño / La Niña]In May 2025, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of -0.2°C, which declined by 0.3°C from April 2025 (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for March 2025 was +0.1°C. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western region and below normal in the central to eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6).
Additionally, subsurface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part, while they were below normal in the eastern part (Fig.5 and Fig.7).
In the atmosphere, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal from western to central parts and were enhanced over the eastern part. Convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9 and Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in May.
In May 2025, SSTs for the NINO.3 region were near normal. While the eastward movement of warm water in the equatorial Pacific is observed, its influence is expected to weaken due to the continued strong easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that NINO.3 SST will persist near normal or below normal until boreal autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is likely (60%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist to boreal autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region in May was the same as normal (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in May (Fig.3). The index is likely to be near normal or below normal until boreal autumn (Fig.13).
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .
