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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( July 2021 - January 2022 )

Last Updated: 9 July 2021
( Next update will be on 11 August 2021 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In June 2021, the NINO.3 SST was near normal with a deviation of -0.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though still below normal, were closer to normal than in May (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western and central parts and near normal in the eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). While atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was below normal, easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal(Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions remained in June.

In the western equatorial Pacific, subsurface warm water mass is observed, and in the coming months this is expected to migrate eastward and contribute to only brief and slight warming of SSTs in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will continue to be near normal until next autumn (Fig.11), notwithstanding weak easterly wind anomalies expected to continue in the equatorial western and central Pacific. In conclusion, ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue until next autumn (70%) (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was near normal in June (Fig.3). The index is likely to remain near normal during autumn (Fig.12).The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was below normal in June (Fig.3). The index is likely to be below or near normal through to autumn (Fig.13).

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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