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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( October 2020 - April 2021 )

Last Updated: 9 October 2020
( Next update will be on 10 November 2020 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In September 2020, the NINO.3 SST was below normal with a deviation of -1.1°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the western part and below normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific was below normal, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were stronger than normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate common features of past La Niña events. It is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface cold waters, observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in September, are expected to maintain colder-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be below normal until boreal winter (Fig.11). In conclusion, La Niña conditions are likely (90%) to continue until boreal winter (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in September (Fig.3). Values are likely to be above or near normal until boreal winter (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in September (Fig.3). Values are likely to be near or below normal until boreal winter (Fig.13).

[Impacts]

The influences of La Niña conditions on the climate in Japan were not clear in September 2020.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in here .

It is considered that warmer-than-normal conditions from the northern part of Australia to the southern part of Polynesia in September 2020 were consistent with the common patterns of the past La Niña events.

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in here .



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