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El Niño Outlook ( July 2024 - January 2025 )

[El Niño / La Niña]

In June 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was near normal with a deviation of -0.2°C, which fell by 0.2°C from May 2024 (Fig.3 and Table). SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal in the western part and below normal in the eastern part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures were below normal in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was slightly inactive and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in June.

The cold subsurface water volume was observed in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5). JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that trade winds over the western to central equatorial Pacific will be stronger than normal and the cold subsurface water volume in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific will be strengthen further. As a result, it is expected that NINO.3 SST will be near or below normal during boreal summer and autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, it is more likely that La Niña conditions will develop by boreal autumn (60%) than ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (40%).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in June (Fig.3). The index is likely to be above or near normal during boreal summer and autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in June (Fig.3). The index is likely to remain above normal in boreal summer, and above or near normal in boreal autumn (Fig.13).

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .