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Ensemble Model Prediction
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Probabilistic Forecast (Warm/Cold Season Prediction)
> Global maps of scores (RSS, ROCA)
Verification of Probabilistic Forecast (Warm/Cold Season Prediction)
Brier Skill Score(left), ROC Area Skill Score(right)
Element:
Surface Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Surface Temperature
Initial date:
31-Jan (Leadtime=4month)
25-Feb (Leadtime=3month)
27-Mar (Leadtime=2month)
29-Aug (Leadtime=3month)
28-Sep (Leadtime=2month)
Event:
all case
above-normal
near-normal
below-normal
Brier Skill Score
ROC Area Skill Score
[Probabilistic Forecast]
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