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Global Warming Projection
Japan Meteorological Agency
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> 4. Tables and Figures
4. Tables and Figures
Future climate projected by the CRCM and NPOGCM
1. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Figure 1.1 Schematic figure of the SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2001)
Figure 1.2 (a) CO2 emissions and (b) projected CO2 concentrations for the A1B and B1 SRES scenarios
2. Regions for the analysis
Figure 2.1 Regions for atmospheric analysis
Figure 2.2 Areas at altitudes below 300 m in the numerical model (CRCM)
Figure 2.3 Regions for analysis of the ocean around Japan
3. Mean surface air temperature in winter
Figure 3.1 Projections of changes in mean surface temperature in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 3.2 Projections of regional mean surface temperature changes in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 3.3 Projection of warming in winter (December - February) for scenario A1B conducted using 21 climate models (used in the report of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
4. Temperature extremes in winter
Table 4.1 Projected rates of the number of days with daily maximum temperatures below 0°C and daily minimum temperatures below 0°C in winter (December - March)
Figure 4.1 Projected rates of the number of days with daily maximum temperatures below 0°C and daily minimum temperatures below 0°C in winter (December - March) for the present and for scenarios A1B and B1
5. Precipitation in winter
Figure 5.1 Projections of changes in precipitation in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 5.2 Projections of regional changes in precipitation in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 5.3 Projection of change in precipitation in winter (December - February) for scenario A1B conducted using 21 climate models (used in the report of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
6. Snowfall in winter
Figure 6.1 Projections of changes in snowfall in winter converted to precipitation amount in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 6.2 Projections of regional changes in snowfall in winter converted to precipitation amount in winter (December - March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 6.3 Projections of monthly regional changes in snowfall in winter converted to precipitation amount in winter (December - March) for areas at altitudes below 300 m for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 6.4 As Fig. 6.3, but for areas at altitudes of 300 m or above
7. Heavy snowfall in winter
Figure 7.1 Projections of changes in the number of days with snowfall (converted precipitation 20 mm or more) in winter (121 days from December to March) for scenarios A1B and B1
Table 7.1 Projected rates of the number of days with snowfall and heavy snowfall (converted precipitation of 20 mm or more) in winter (December - March) for areas at altitudes below 300m
Table 7.2 As Table 7.1, but for areas with altitudes of 300 m or above
8. Sea surface temperature
Figure 8.1 Projected 100-year linear trends (1981 - 2100) in annual sea surface temperatures around Japan calculated using the NPOGCM for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 8.2 Observed 100-year linear trends (1900 - 2007) in annual sea surface temperatures around Japan
9. Sea level
Figure 9.1 Projected 100-year linear trends (1981 - 2100) in annual sea levels around Japan calculated using the NPOGCM for scenarios A1B and B1
10. Kuroshio
Figure 10.1 Areas of evaluation for the volume transport, current speed and axis of the Kuroshio
Figure 10.2 Projections of changes in the volume transport of the Kuroshio east of Japan using the NPOGCM for scenarios A1B and B1
Figure 10.3 Projections of changes in the maximum current speed (at a depth of 100 m) and current axis (latitudes with maximum current speed) of the Kuroshio using the NPOGCM for scenarios A1B and B1
11. Sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk
Figure 11.1 Projections of changes in monthly sea ice extent in Sea of Okhotsk for scenarios A1B and B1
Appendices
1. Model description and experimental design
Figure A1.1 Schematic figure of experiment conducted using the CRCM
Figure A1.2 Schematic figure of experiments conducted using the CGCM 2.3.2
2. Simulated present climate by the CRCM and NPOGCM
Figure A2.1 Simulations of mean temperature in winter (December - March)
Figure A2.2 Simulations of daily maximum temperature in winter (December - March)
Figure A2.3 Simulations of daily minimum temperature in winter (December - March)
Figure A2.4 Spatial pattern of simulated precipitation in winter (December - March). Differences in regional precipitation and snowfall between simulation and observation.
Figure A2.5 Simulations of daily precipitation in winter (December - March)
Figure A2.6 Simulations of annual sea surface temperature averaged over the period 1985 - 2000. Differences in annual sea surface temperatures between simulation and observation.
Figure A2.7 Simulated and observed sea level for the period 1993 - 2000
Figure A2.8 Typical current paths of the Kuroshio south of Japan
Figure A2.9 Simulation of current speed at a depth of 100m and its standard deviation for the period 1981 - 2000
Figure A2.10 Simulated and observed monthly spatial patterns of sea ice
3. Future climate projected by CGCM2.3.2
Figure A3.1 Time series of global mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1961-1990
Figure A3.2 Projections of changes in annual, winter (December - February) and summer (June - August) temperatures for scenario A1B from the five-member ensemble.
Figure A3.3 Projections of changes in annual, winter (December - February) and summer (June - August) precipitation for scenario A1B from the five-member ensemble
Figure A3.4 Time series of projected global mean sea levels for scenarios A1B and B1 relative to the period 1981 - 2000 from the five-member ensemble
Figure A3.5 Lines of sea ice concentration of 15% from observation and simulation, and the rates of change in sea ice concentration for scenario A1B for the period 2081 - 2100 relative to the period 1981 - 2000 (%)
Figure A3.6 Projections of 500 hPa heights in winter (December - February) and summer (June - August) from the five-member ensemble
Figure A3.7 Projections of sea level pressure in winter (December - February) and summer (June - August) from the five-member ensemble
Figure A3.8 Projection of change in sea level pressure in winter (December - February) for scenario A1B based on the multi-model ensemble (hPa)
3. Summary of future projection
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5. References
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